Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
